Turkey, US, and Russia may prioritize stability in Syria
Does this mean a ceasefire or the overthrow of the Assad regime?
By Craig C. White
Stability is the word for today concerning Syria. Some people conclude that this means a ceasefire but there already is a ceasefire in northwestern Syria. Lasting stability can only come if Turkey and their proxy Al-Qaeda forces pack up and leave. Considering the fact that Turkey has recently poured military assets into Idlib province I don’t think that they intend to retreat any time soon.
Turkey has recently deployed US Hawk mid-range anti-aircraft missiles in Idlib. The US has promised to give Turkey Patriot missiles if Turkey will lay down their Russian S-400 missiles. The US has promised to support Turkey in northwestern Syria and indeed they already are. So the US is propping up military instability in northwestern Syria.
There is another means of creating stability in Syria. That is to overthrow the Assad regime. That way everybody gets what they want, that is everybody except for the Syrian people. Turkey will install Sunni Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Damascus adding another cooperative nation to Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman Empire. The US will minimize Iran’s influence over Syria and strengthen their NATO ally in the Middle East. Turkey and the US are eager to take on the overthrow of Assad. That means that Russia will be able to sit back and stop spending their military dollars in Syria. Russia wants stability in Syria above all. As long as Russia has assurances that their warm water shipping ports in Latakia are preserved then they would be willing to work with any regime that could provide stability.
Turkey has extreme leverage over Russia. Turkey controls Russia’s shipping lane through the Bosporus. Russia also recently opened the TurkStream natural gas pipeline that extends from Russia to Turkey. Russia is also relying on Turkey to buy Russian weapons including the S-400 missile system and Su-35 and Su-57 fighter jets. Whether they like it or not, Russia must cater to Turkey’s interests.
The Prophet Jeremiah tells us that northwestern Syria will hear evil reports and be terrified. Then the residents of Damascus will flee and Damascus will be destroyed. The Turkish Army is threatening the exact regions that Jeremiah warns us about. Read my commentary titled The nations are disquieted over Syria.